These will likely send Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
What a month it’s been.
We’ve seen Bitcoin surge to a new all-time high of $126K, only to drop to $105K the following day after Trump announced further tariffs on China.
What many saw as Uptober has turned out to be the complete opposite.
With less than three days left in this month, we’re seeing tens of billions of dollars rapidly flowing back into this space.
BTC’s back around $115,000, ETH’s holding $4,000 once again, and altcoins are clawing back some of the massive losses from two weeks ago.
Here are two major factors that could quickly inject hundreds of billions of dollars into this market if all (more or less) goes to plan.
All eyes are on Washington, D.C.
All eyes will be on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today and tomorrow, October 28–29, Eastern Time (ET).
Following last month’s Fed rate cut to 4.25%, the first in 2025, many are banking on another 25 basis-point cut this time. It would emulate what The Fed did last year, keeping rates on hold for most of 2024, then carrying out two rate cuts towards the end of it.
However, it’s a delicate balancing act between managing inflation and keeping rates low enough.
Still, the lower-than-expected September CPI figure of 0.3% (3% annually) has further boosted confidence in a rate cut this week, even though headline inflation is still above 2%.
Besides the stats, people will pay attention to further announcements about the end of quantitative tightening, which will eventually pave the way for what many Bitcoin and crypto enthusiasts are waiting for: quantitative easing (QE), a.k.a. money printing.
One of the best indicators for an end to QT is this comment from Jerome Powell’s speech two weeks ago:
“Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.”
Understanding the Fed’s Balance Sheet. October 14, 2025.
A Fed rate cut, even without QE on the horizon, usually lifts risk‑on assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin. Once again, it’s about hitting a sweet spot: several spaced-out modest rate cuts of 25 bps rather than deeper cuts of 50 bps, which might spook investors and signal potential economic woes.
Despite mixed results abroad (The EU is keeping rates on hold for now, and the Bank of Japan is expected to increase rates by the end of this year), Trump is still keen on seeing Powell significantly drop the rates to lower borrowing costs and the billions of additional dollars to service $38 trillion of public debt.
A resolution to the ongoing tariff saga?
This one here’s the closest thing to a literal double-edged sword, at least when it comes to major, unpredictable* news.
*It’s Trump, so you should always expect the unexpected.
Based on the POTUS’ (in)famous October 10 announcement, just as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were wrapping up for the week, shit hit the fan in the crypto sphere when Trump announced additional 100% tariffs on various Chinese goods from November, i.e., this Saturday.
From the complete carnage we witnessed in the minutes following DJT’s post on Truth Social, it was clear that this news is crypto’s kryptonite.
“Starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.”
Click here to view a screenshot of this post; no sign-in required.
For comparison, Bitcoin got through it relatively unscathed, merely dipping to about $105,000, unlike most crypto assets, which were completely decimated immediately after this news went public.
So, if this sent shockwaves through crypto, how on Earth is this bullish?
Well, Trump and Xi are expected to meet in the coming days to de-escalate the trade disputes between the USA and China. If it goes ahead, it would be the first meeting between the two leaders since the former’s return to the White House in January.
Trump will likely renege on the 100% figure and impose something much softer to avoid causing any further disarray.
As a quick sidenote, I do welcome measures from the USA and other Western countries aimed at reducing China’s dominance over rare earths. It alone accounts for over 66% of rare-earth production (2023 figures).
Also, as long as you have some dry powder available, then you’ll love the abrupt market dips as much as the pumps. Typical permabull thinking, I know.
Additional thoughts
If we end up with the best-case scenario of a 25-bps cut, less tension between the US and China, and Bitcoin closing the month above $115,000 (which would be the second-highest close in history), then the bull run is still on.
I, like many others, have realised that the four-year cycle has likely finished, signalling uncharted territory for what is still a relatively nascent asset class.
There will still be pullbacks along the way. Still, I remain optimistic for Bitcoin, Ethereum and a handful of altcoins moving forward, especially as we get more regulatory clarity and spot ETF approvals.
When Bitcoin clears $130,000, wait for another set of veteran financial analysts to appear on mainstream media saying, “The Bitcoin bubble’s about to burst,” especially if it sets a new all-time high as October wraps up.
There will be tears regardless of what happens: deep frustration and outright anger for those who have remained on the sidelines for many years as BTC continues its ascent, or massive disappointment for not taking profits before a hypothetical crash, likely signalling the end of this bull cycle.
Either way, brace yourselves for some price action this week and for the rest of Q4.
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Disclaimers
• This blog post is for informational purposes only. It is not financial/investment advice. You are ultimately responsible for your decisions.
• My opinions in this piece may not reflect those of any news outlet, person, organisation, or entity listed here.
• Please do sufficient research before investing in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, related stocks or other products associated with this space.
Image by Benny Marty at Shutterstock
