Why This Crypto Executive Isn’t Convinced That We’ll See a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

And why Bitcoin doesn’t need this to thrive.

Arthur Hayes, a renowned crypto personality, former Co-Founder and CEO of Bitmex, and current Chief Investment Officer of crypto VC firm Maelstrom, questions whether President Trump will ever initiate the highly anticipated US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

He is sceptical that Trump will secure enough funding before the US Midterm Elections in November 2026 and questions where the money will come from.

According to a CoinDesk interview with Arthur Hayes, he mentioned:

“I don’t think Trump will get around to doing a bitcoin reserve. At the end of the day, I don’t know how borrowing money to buy bitcoin helps on any of Trump’s platforms.”

In Trump Truth, a piece Hayes published last month on Medium, he discusses the SBR in detail, touches on post-WW2 monetary structures, and covers changing economic situations in four major blocs and nation-states: the US, China, Japan, and the European Union (EU).  

This differs from comments made by Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO), who believes that Trump is “excited” about the idea of an SBR.

Crunching the numbers

Will it get the SBR? Contrary to Hayes’ comments, I believe it will.

While I understand and acknowledge where Hayes is coming from – there are so many issues to deal with – and the country’s public debt to GDP is still increasing, it’s understanding many would be sceptical.

However, if any country could readily do an SBF, the US would be at the front of the pack.

It already has a head start, as its Federal Government has seized over 215,000 BTC since 2020. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, it currently owns 207,189 BTC valued at $21.14 billion, representing the largest holdings by any government.

For context, the Chinese Government comes in second with 194,000 BTC.

Even if the USA could not acquire 1,000,000 BTC within five years, it could easily build on its current holdings as a bare minimum to get close to this target.

“Just as gold reserves have historically served as a cornerstone of national financial security, Bitcoin represents a digital-age asset capable of enhancing the financial leadership and security of the United States in the 21st-century global economy.”

SBR Bill by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)

It would fittingly involve a distributed network of cold storage facilities (vaults). This legislation also makes it more difficult for the Federal Government to “to seize, confiscate, or otherwise impair any property right in the lawfully acquired Bitcoin holdings of any person.”

How will the US fund its SBR? This will most likely occur by issuing debt, although the idea of selling a portion of the USA’s gold reserves (valued at $687.73 billion*) has been floated.

If this were to happen, there might be an impetus to sell a portion of this gold sooner rather than later, considering that BTC continues to outperform gold.

*As of January 6, 2025, based on statistics from the World Gold Council. As gold’s price has increased (even further) since then.  

Additional thoughts


Bitcoin has had to deal with scandals, bankruptcies, government bans/restrictions, negative stereotypes, etc.

Yet, the flagship crypto has been so resilient that it has not only bounced back from these adverse events but has periodically entered price-discovery mode in recent months, hitting a new all-time high (once again) of $109,000 in the hours leading up to Trump’s second inauguration. 

Even though the 47th POTUS hasn’t mentioned Bitcoin recently, I still expect far friendlier regulations for BTC, altcoins and the entire industry than the previous administration offered.

BTC still holds above $100,000, around $102,000 at the time of writing.

Even if Trump’s administration chooses not to approve an SBR, I doubt this would stop Bitcoin’s ascent in the long run.

Hayes also recognised this in his Trump Truth piece:

“While I don’t believe the US government will purchase Bitcoin, it doesn’t affect my positive price outlook…We know empirically that the fiat Bitcoin price rises faster than the rate at which the global supply of dollars grows due to its finite supply and diminishing circulating supply of coins.”

I acknowledge if the SBR never sees the light of day, there will most likely be a pullback, and people will be “angry”.

However, the smart money keeps calm and carries on…with stacking BTC.

Institutional investors understand the fundamentals.
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Bitcoin’s increasing hash rate—a key metric for determining network security—alongside its 21 million max supply and pre-programmed halving of its inflation rate every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years) still make it the best digital asset on the block…chain.

As long as interest in Bitcoin remains high in the coming years and its network remains secure (and adapts to potential threats from quantum computing), it will continue soldiering on, eventually overtaking gold as the world’s largest asset by market cap.

Any dips would most likely be a case of shaking out weak hands, as has been the case for several years.

With how things have panned out since the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, I don’t see interest waning anytime soon, especially when Michael Saylor is around.

When do you believe the SBR will be approved? Which other major BTC/crypto milestones are you waiting for in 2025? Leave your thoughts below.

Disclaimers

          N.B. None of this is financial advice; I am not a financial advisor. This information is for educational purposes only. You are ultimately responsible for crypto investments, let alone in any asset class.

  • The opinions expressed within this piece are my own and might not reflect those behind any news outlet, person, organisation, or otherwise listed here.
  • Please do sufficient research before investing in any crypto assets, staking, NFTs or other products affiliated with this space.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum account for about 50% of my crypto holdings, followed by Cardano (ADA) and XRP, making up another 25%.

Featured image by Robert Avgustin at Shutterstock.

This story was originally published on Medium on January 23, 2025.

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