Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, coupled with the 2024 Bitcoin Halving, will make 2021’s bull run look like child’s play.
The excitement surrounding the imminent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF (or multiple ones) has led to BTC hitting and holding $30K in recent weeks.
Now, we have even more rocket fuel to propel BTC, ETH, and most altcoins/tokens.
BlackRock has filed for an Ethereum spot ETF with the NASDAQ.
It registered its iShares Ethereum Trust as a corporate entity in Delaware, as reported by CoinDesk.
Shortly after this announcement, ETH’s price surged past $2,000 per coin, gaining over 10% in less than 24 hours.
Bitcoin also benefited from this announcement, as did several altcoins and tokens, notably liquid staking derivatives (LSDs) such as Lido DAO and Rocket Pool.
Key language in Nasdaq/iShares spot ether ETF filing…
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) November 9, 2023
Nate Geraci, an investment advisor specialising in ETFs, and James Seyffart, a research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted the key points of the iShares (BlackRock) Ethereum spot ETF application.
When will these ETFs get approved?
There’s a high probability they will get the green light in the coming months. Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, and his counterpart James Seyffart claimed that the probability of the regulatory body approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023 sits at 75%.
In an updated tweet (posted yesterday), both analysts have increased this to a 90% chance by January 10, in exactly two months.
With the constant applications and revisions to date, alongside the reported 90% probability, it is no wonder there is so much hype surrounding these ETF decisions.
It is widely expected that the US SEC will most likely approve multiple spot ETFs simultaneously. To avoid first-mover advantage for BlackRock and thus piss off several ETF applicants – many of whom have been trying to get an ETF approved for several years.
The Bitcoin ones should be approved first, considering that these applications date back much further than their Ethereum equivalents, not to mention that they remain the #1 asset in this class as per the circulating market cap.
For context, Grayscale has been trying to convert its separate Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts to ETFs, putting in submissions well before BlackRock. However, since the latter has publicly entered the space – with its ~$9.4 trillion in assets under management – optimism has grown for the prospects of BTC and ETH spot ETFs seeing the light of day sooner than we think.
Even though I prefer to see more emphasis on retail money pouring into the space rather than focusing on institutional investors, I am glad to see increasing interest in the crypto space.
Above all, this represents some of the most bullish news to enter this market in a long time, besides Ripple’s (partial) victory over the US SEC.
Is it possible for another price correction before the 2024 Bitcoin Block Reward Halving? Anything is possible at a macroeconomic level, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide, high interest rates and the USA’s ballooning public debt.
However, Bitcoin and crypto will gradually decouple from these legacy markets, and we can’t deny that we’re in a bull cycle once again.
Impressive performances across the crypto markets for the majority of top-100 assets – not to mention several micro- and small-cap altcoins and tokens – have wreaked havoc for crypto bears, short-sellers and anyone wanting to see this market F off into the ether.
Perhaps I am getting too ahead of myself by saying that we’re out of the woods, but it’s difficult not to be optimistic about crypto’s prospects going into 2024; historical data about price performance, strong fundamentals, tokenomics, and prior bull cycles only add to this excitement.
Before wrapping up, I also recommend keeping an eye on the relationship between BTC and ETH in the coming months to see how the two are performing relative to each other and the market at large (as a percentage of market dominance).
BTC/ETH chart since 2016, i.e., how many ETH can be bought with 1 BTC? Source: CoinMarketCap
What do you think? Are we set for one last drop before the 2024 Bitcoin Halving, or is there enough confirmation that we are officially in a bull market? Leave your thoughts below.
Thanks for reading, and happy crypto trading/investing.
P.S. I will expand on other developments surrounding BTC, ETH and altcoins in the coming months. Subscribe to my Medium channel to stay up-to-date with the latest developments.
- N.B. None of this is financial advice; I am not a financial advisor. You are ultimately responsible for crypto investments, let alone in any asset class.
- The opinions expressed within this piece are my own and might not reflect those behind any news outlet, person, organisation, or otherwise listed here.
- Please do your research before investing in any crypto assets, staking, NFTs, or other products affiliated with this space.
- For transparency, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) each account for roughly 25% of my crypto portfolio, i.e., 50%.
© Crypto with Lorenzo 2023. All rights reserved unless specified otherwise.
Originally published on Medium on 11 November 2023.