Why This September Will Be Memorable For Crypto

Keep an eye on Ethereum, Cardano and Bitcoin

Photo by Zoltan Tasi on Unsplash

Two of the most prolific altcoins, Ethereum and Cardano, are finally getting major upgrades; long-awaited ones too (particular for the former). 
The dates are finally locked in: the Ethereum Merge will be occurring sometime between 10 and 20 September, whereas Cardano’s Vasil hard fork will be good to go by 22 September. 
Ethereum Merge
The highly anticipated upgrade involving the full transition of Ethereum’s current main net (hybridised proof-of-work/proof-of-stake) will join with Beacon Chain (exclusively PoS), thus making mining redundant on this blockchain. 
I have covered all of the relevant details relating to this event in a separate piece.

Despite the publicity and (mostly) positive sentiment behind this event, there are also concerns raised about it, particularly what (major) ETH miners will do after the transition, not to mention high ETH concentration (centralisation) amongst staking pools right now. 
Cardano Vasil Hard Fork
One of the largest network improvements since Cardano (ADA) officially launched the Alonzo Hard Fork, as part of the Goguen Era last year, marking the beginning of smart contracts on its blockchain.

Photo by Zoltan Tasi on Unsplash

ADA benefited significantly from the hype connected to this, hitting an all-time high of $3.09 days after the above-mentioned fork. 
Currently sitting at just under 50 cents, many eyes will be on the price to see if it can go beyond $1 once again; it has remained below this level since April. 
Keep an eye on ADA’s price in the day’s leading up to and shortly after the 22nd of September. I expect some volatility. However, if the 2020 Bitcoin Block Reward Halving is anything to go by, then it could be a few months before any real price action occurs.

Based on a recent tweet from Charles Hoskinson (CEO of IOG, one of the three entities behind Cardano), I am fairly confident that the Vasil upgrade will be carried out with minimal interruption, especially following testnet issues last month.
Historically bearish Bitcoin sentiment in September
Generally speaking, Bitcoin’s price has a tendency to drop in September of each year, based on historical data for the foundation crypto. The table below from Benjamin Cowen highlights this bearish trend for this month over the past five years.

Photo by Zoltan Tasi on Unsplash

Could it end up continuing the negative form by making it six in a row? It is hard to determine, as we have a combination of bullish sentiment in the lead-up to the abovementioned upgrades, and macroeconomic and geopolitical issues adversely affecting multiple assets class, including crypto.
Post-Merge blues
The Merge will likely garner the highest amount of attention amongst the major cryptos, owing to the sheer scale of Ethereum’s network (considering active dApps, institutional involvement, second-largest circulating market-cap, and so on), not to mention the years of discussion surrounding this. 
In spite of the positive sentiment, there are also concerns pertaining to this major move, not just for Ethereum, but even Bitcoin. 
Independent crypto researcher Kyle McDonald has warned of potential regulatory issues post-Merge that could be imposed on Bitcoin due to its dependence on energy-intensive mining (PoW). 
This ties in with ongoing concerns about the carbon emissions associated with Bitcoin (though, I have covered some feasible solutions to this in another article).

Focusing on Ethereum, NFT enthusiasts should be aware of any digital-collectible duplicates linked with forked versions of Ethereum.
I envisage this will be temporary and eventually resolved, but NFT owners and collectible traders should be cautious of any scams that could take advantage of this situation in the meantime.
Concluding thoughts
In summary, when two massive upgrades relating to two of the largest cryptos occurs in quick succession, many are banking on some wild price action. 
The crypto market has dropped considerably since many digital assets reached new all-time highs in the latter part of 2021, with BTC, ETH and ADA all done at least 65% from their peaks. 
Thus, many people are banking on some considerable network improvements to any of the abovementioned cryptos, let alone even more adoption worldwide, to kick-start another market-wide bull run. 
Will it happen this year? It’s possible, if 2017 is anything to go buy, but unlikely, chiefly due to what is occurring around the world at present, notably with interest-rate hikes leading to less spending in general; as a result, less money going into crypto at present vs 12 months ago. 
Having said this, some people might see long-term potential behind these significant price drops, and relish the opportunities before any crypto market resurgence.

None of this is financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. The information contained herein is a mixture of opinion and news from either myself and multiple media outlets as provided in the attached links. Please do your own research prior to investing in anything discussed here, let alone the general crypto space. 
Disclaimer: I hold sufficient amounts of BTC, ETH and ADA, so I acknowledge that these assets rising in price would benefit me.

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