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It’s that time once again: Q4 in the fourth year of the crypto cycle.
If the 2017 and 2021 bull runs were anything to go by, expect another round of fireworks, especially for altcoins.
While BTC and ETH holders are less likely to achieve the astronomical gains that altcoins often attain, here are five reasons that keep me very optimistic about this market as 2025 draws to a close.
1. Legislative clarity and (gradual) mainstream acceptance
You’d need at least a few articles to comprehensively outline how much this sector and asset class have evolved since the early days, especially since 2017, when crypto started becoming mainstream.
Long gone are the days when you’d hear Karens (yes, plural) and their male equivalents harping on about Bitcoin being primarily used for “scammers, money launderers and other forms of criminal activity”. Let’s not forget about circumventing sanctions, for better or worse.
Yes, these people still exist, and will continue to spread this nonsense. However, I’ve noticed a massive narrative shift since the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA.
Now that BlackRock and other financial titans are on board, the masses can start to feel assured about Bitcoin, and, to a certain extent, Ethereum.
Of course, there will still be well-educated, financially savvy individuals who will avoid Bitcoin and crypto at all costs, at least not until we see a $1 million BTC. When this occurs, many in this group will complain about missing out and remain unwilling to touch it, as well as many altcoins, but I digress.
Besides spot ETFs, we witnessed a breakthrough for our industry with the approval of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS) Act.
One of the most discussed pieces of legislation in our industry over the past year, this act introduces an extensive set of regulations for USD-pegged stablecoins.
Some notable examples include:
– Issuers with a market cap above $50 billion will be legally obligated to provide annual audited financial statements. Tether and Circle are the only ones that fit into this category.
– Creating more possibilities for quicker and cheaper international payments.
– A requirement to have a 100% reserve backing with USD, short-term Treasuries or other liquid assets as specified by the main regulator.
– It will be highly unlikely ever to see something akin to the 2022 Terra Luna collapse, even if separate rules for algorithmic stablecoins are established down the track.
Of course, we have had permissionless options, such as Bitcoin, XRP Ledger, and Ethereum, for several years now to do this. Still, I’m all for system-wide improvements, particularly for settling payments in fiat.
Across the Atlantic, progress is being made on stablecoin legislation in the UK through improved regulations and the better integration of these digital assets into the UK’s banking system. If the US has approved the GENIUS Act, then it makes sense for other major economies, such as the UK, the EU, and Japan, to draft regulations for local stablecoins.
Beyond stablecoins, the U.S. Government is also reviewing the CLARITY Act. This legislation will help provide regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies, not just stablecoins.
Assuming approval in the near future, it will help us determine which digital assets fall under the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
People would have laughed at this idea 10 years ago and have probably called you crazy.
2. Improved infrastructure and established alternatives
Until 2021, there were few reliable, established alternatives to Ethereum when it came to token swaps, NFT minting and trading, and using DeFi protocols, among other applications.
Solana was still in the process of building itself and was far from being a competitor to Ethereum at the time. BNB Chain had some activity, but it still wasn’t as reputable and well-known (relatively speaking) as it is today.
Ethereum L2s were barely used compared to the millions of transactions they process daily.
Polygon was the go-to sidechain, but even that had (and still has) its limitations.
As a result, during periods of very chaotic trading activity, it was common to have to spend hundreds of dollars for just one Ethereum transaction, specifically those involving token swaps or NFT minting.
Fast forward to now, and the situation is significantly better.
With improved cross-chain interoperability, the established presence of Ethereum L2s and numerous competing L1S, as well as upgrades and other blockchain infrastructure improvements, there are plenty of alternatives available nowadays when one chain is temporarily down.
This isn’t solely for cases of non-custodial wallets and those who mostly use decentralised exchanges. Over time, Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase have equipped their exchanges to handle periods of intense trading activity, particularly the latter.
The situation across the board is still far from perfect, but it’s significantly better than 2021, as it should be.
3. Google Trends search data
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB and other blue-chip digital assets have either exceeded or are near all-time highs. Yet, when evaluating public interest for these projects and their assets, we’re still far from the top.
As retail starts pouring back in, which is gradually happening, based on Google Trends statistics, the entire market will pump even harder and faster than many expect, similar to 2017 and 2021.
What’s even more exciting is that we now have billions more people accessing the Internet compared to 2017. According to a line graph from the World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database and the International Telecommunication Union, 45% of the world had access* to the Internet in 2017. This stood at 68% as of 2024, and is likely to exceed 80% by 2030.
Billions more people being online means a large number of new entrants to this space, at least eventually, as their quality of life gradually improves and they have more access to disposable income.
*The source mentioned above considers “access” as having surfed the web at least once over the past three months.
While many complain about missing the boat, the 24/7 global nature of Bitcoin and crypto, where fractional ownership or digital assets have been the norm since 2009, will pump significantly more liquidity into this asset class, much to our delight, especially for relatively early crypto adopters.
4. More interest rate cuts on the horizon
Many are expecting further cuts, as U.S. labour growth eases, global financial woes deepen in the coming years (the World Debt Clocks say it all), particularly with inflation rates, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the gradual overhaul of various industries with the rise of AI.
Following the 25-basis-point cut at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting two weeks ago, Polymarket predictions indicate a 90% chance of a 25-bps rate cut later this month.
However, there is an important caveat here. Unlike previous meetings this year, we are aware that there has been a systemic US Government shutdown for non-essential services until Congress reaches a funding agreement.
As a result, this situation contributed to skewed/misleading economic data, making it harder for Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed to make the most informed decisions. Nonetheless, rate cuts remain a plausible option, and funding for various departments will likely be restored, at least to some extent.
If we don’t see a reduction in October, remember that FOMC meetings will also take place in December and January.
Bitcoin and various altcoins remain well above or near their 2021 peaks, despite interest rates being significantly lower at the time. As a result, rate cuts now will be even more bullish for cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets.
5. Favourable technical analysis metrics
Possibly the most important factor at play, but I deliberately saved the most boring part until the end.
Experienced traders will be paying close attention to price trends and changes in trader sentiment, preparing for the moment when the market eventually flips bearish. Fortunately, we’re not there yet.
Here are some key metrics to consider. This is far from an extensive list:
– Moving Averages (MA) – price crossing above the 50-day MA (or a golden‑cross of 50-day above 200-day).
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) – RSI consistently remains above 30 but stays below 70. Going too low indicates oversold assets, and exceeding 70 signals overbought periods, i.e., a time for a price correction.
– MACD – MACD line crossing above its signal line, with a positive histogram.
– 24-hour trading volumes – increasing volume on up‑days, especially during price breakouts. Not just for Bitcoin, but across the board, particularly for many blue chips.
– Trendlines / Channels – price breaking above a descending trendline or the upper boundary of a channel.
– Chart Patterns – formation of bullish patterns such as ascending triangle, bull flag, cup‑and‑handle, or inverse head‑and‑shoulders, followed by an upward breakout.
Besides TA, another optimistic sign for this market is the rapid growth of Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC in terms of market cap. These are well above their peaks of the last bull run in November 2021, especially for USDT.
Moreover, you will see Bitcoin continuing to set higher highs relative to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
If you want to delve deeper into important charts to help you understand this market very well, here’s an article I wrote in August.
Additional thoughts
While we will no longer see life-changing gains from investing loose change into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many blue-chip cryptocurrencies, the majority don’t realise that this industry and overall asset class still have enormous growth potential in the coming decades.
Yes, these still need to overcome regulatory hurdles and negative perceptions associated with a handful of bad actors in the space, so there will still be bear markets, or, at best, prolonged periods of price stagnation (i.e., accumulation phases), especially when macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are involved.
Besides directly investing in Bitcoin, various crypto-related stocks, notably those of Bitcoin miners, have managed to outperform BTC significantly this year. IREN (formerly Iris Energy) has been on a complete rampage, pulling off an 872% increase (yes, that’s not a typo) over the past six months.
Mind you, depending on your risk tolerance, I recommend starting to ladder out, taking profits and rotating them into other emerging crypto stocks or even less-risky options, such as crypto ETFs, e.g., ARK Invest funds, which invest in a range of firms across crypto, fintech, robotics, AI/AGI, quantum computing, and biotech. Alternatively, buy BTC.
The technical term describing these companies is a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin, as outlined by CryptoSlate.
I have outlined my strategy to help you reach 0.5 BTC (or even 0.25 BTC nowadays) by seeking high-performing assets, whereby you can take profits into BTC. For more info, check out the article below.
Thanks for reading.
https://medium.com/@cryptowithlorenzo/its-not-too-late-to-own-at-least-half-a-bitcoin-eba7ac43a21c
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You might also be interested in these stories:
https://medium.com/@cryptowithlorenzo/bitcoin-is-going-to-zero-5562122f5481
https://cryptowithlorenzo.medium.com/five-crypto-sectors-with-the-most-potential-in-2025-f1fe085564c8
Disclaimers
- N.B. None of this is financial advice; I am not a financial advisor. You are ultimately responsible for your investments.
- My opinions in this piece may not reflect those of any news outlet, person, organisation, or other entity listed here.
- Please do your due diligence before investing in any crypto assets, staking, NFTs, or other products associated with this space.
- Information is correct at the time of writing.
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