It’s been almost four years since the last major market-wide bull run came to an end, peaking in November 2021 with BTC around $69,400.
Four years before that, BTC and many altcoins experienced some of the wildest hype we’ve ever witnessed in crypto, only to come rapidly crashing down around Christmas 2017.
If history repeats, we’ll only have another 4- 5 months left before this bull market comes to a screeching halt.
But is this time different?
Michael Saylor certainly thinks so. In an interview with Bloomberg Crypto last month, he said:
“Winter’s not coming back. We’ve passed that phase. If Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million dollars.”
So, is it time to put the idea of the four-year Bitcoin/crypto cycle to bed?
I came across a short video from Lark Davis, a renowned crypto commentator with over a decade of experience in this market, who questions whether this idea still holds for this asset class.
“I have a feeling that the four-year cycle may be done because I feel like we’re gonna follow along with stock-market cycles. The average stock-market cycle lasts about five to six years.”
If this were the case, the bull market could potentially extend into late 2028.
This is plausible due to the significant institutional influence over Bitcoin nowadays, unlike in previous cycles, including the 2020/21 bull market.
However, this is a long shot. In reality, it could peak around June 2026, particularly for altcoins.
But your guess is as good as mine.
Let’s be honest, no one really knows.
Eventually, we will see 99.999% of cryptocurrencies fading away, with most attention being directed to about 20-25 of these moving forward, in addition to a handful of memecoins.
I can’t wait for the hundreds of thousands of copycat and scam cryptocurrencies to disappear, so we can focus on digital assets that truly matter, particularly BTC and ETH.
The way things are panning out, Bitcoin will continue to decouple from altcoins and will do its own thing, regardless of a conventional cycle consisting of bull, bear, and accumulation phases across four years.
————————————————————————————————————————–
Gone are the days when crypto was almost exclusively controlled by retail investors, which peaked around late 2017 or early 2018.
At that time, we were likely to witness greater volatility as emotions were much more influential on these rookie investors than on their more experienced institutional counterparts.
Also, more people, including everyday crypto holders and traders, would be more inclined to use bots and similar AI tools, which would also reduce the probability of making rash trading decisions, as was more likely the case in previous cycles.
As a result, I also doubt whether this market will still follow the conventional pattern of regaining momentum about five months after each Bitcoin block reward halving.
For us Bitcoin veterans – those who have been here since 2017 and have consistently accumulated several BTC or stacked sats – I doubt we’ll witness such drastic and prolonged price dips moving forward.
So, if this is all guesswork, and very few people (if anyone) can accurately predict what will happen, why do many of us obsess over the concept of a four-year cycle?
It’s all about making the most informed decisions possible with the information we have to maximise our Bitcoin and crypto profits moving forward, making adjustments along the way as this market evolves.
Those who accumulate heavily during the massive dips, sell their profits when the market is overhyped, and repeat the cycle will be the ones to make millions in the long run.
1,103,000 and falling
In just over 16 years, we’ve mined nearly 20 million BTC, roughly 94.5% of the max supply.
It will take another 125 years to mine the remaining 1.1 million coins.
From the Seventh Block Reward Halving, scheduled around 2036, the new Bitcoin will fall below 100 BTC daily, dropping to a meagre 56.25 coins every 24 hours.
Over time, these halving events will become less significant from a price perspective, at least in relative terms…and we’re already seeing this.
Mind you, even if price gains drop to 2-3x after pulling off 60x and 20x gains in the previous four-year cycles, the idea of Bitcoin’s price tripling to $360,000 at the end of this cycle or in the coming years is nothing to scoff at.
Due to all of this, I believe we will eventually break this four-year cycle; whether or not it will happen during this bull run remains to be seen.
BTC/USD log10 and linear price charts, Oct 5, 2009, to July 27, 2025, with (approximate) halving dates. Source: Highcharts.com via Bitso. Halving dates were added by the author.
While these halving events remain important from the perspectives of Bitcoin’s inflation and hash rate, what will matter more is how the ~99% of the max supply will be managed.
What do you think? Will Bitcoin and major altcoins continue to observe this phenomenon, or will they become more aligned with the market cycle, as suggested by Lark Davis?
Is Michael Saylor correct or being overly optimistic?
Affiliate links
If you’d like to purchase a Ledger or Trezor product, please use the following link to help support my channel. I receive a small commission per sale at no additional cost.
https://shop.ledger.com/?r=a1b3ac23d773
https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=169&aff_id=35611
You might also be interested in these stories:
https://medium.com/@cryptowithlorenzo/why-most-arent-ready-for-what-s-coming-with-bitcoin-5064345783ca
https://medium.com/@cryptowithlorenzo/bitcoin-is-going-to-zero-5562122f5481
Disclaimers
• N.B. None of this is financial advice; I am not a financial advisor. This information is for educational purposes only. You are ultimately responsible for your investments.
• My opinions in this piece might not reflect those behind any news outlet, person, organisation, or otherwise listed here.
Featured image by Morrowind at Shutterstock.